Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Market update Wed. 08/05/09 - Free Stock Market Analysis

Here is the latest trading and free market analysis info on the markets and more...

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August 05, 2009 -- 16:15 ET Dow -39.22 at 9280.97, Nasdaq -18.26 at 1993.05, S&P -2.93 at 1002.75:
Moving the Market:
Financials continue to garner support. ADP Employment Change Report for July shows job losses exceed expectations. ISM Services Index for July falls short of consensus, but factory orders for June make surprise increase. Dow components Procter & Gamble and Kraft top earnings expectations but issue in-line guidance.

Sector Watch:
multiline insurers; residential REITs; diversified banks; office REITs; diversified financial services; airlines; consumer finance; diversified REITs

photo products; electronic manufacturing services; human resources and employment services; casinos and gaming; electronic components and equipment; distillers and vintners; managed health care; oil and gas equipment

Market Events:
08/05/09 16:15 ET Dow -39.22 at 9280.97, Nasdaq -18.26 at 1993.05, S&P -2.93 at 1002.75:
[BRIEFING.COM] Despite continued strength among financial issues, the major equity averages surrendered

some of their recent gains in the wake of a generally unimpressive batch of economic data.

Financials outperformed the broader market with relative ease for the second straight session. They jumped out to an early gain and were able to remain in positive ground for virtually the entire session before closing with a 3.3% gain. Financials are now up more than 8% this week.

Better-than-expected earnings from Marsh & McLennan (MMC 22.62, +1.12) gave insurers a lift and helped drive short-covering in left-for-dead names like AIG (AIG 22.00, +8.48), but bank stocks provided some of the most support to the broader market. Regional banks advanced 2.9%, diversified banks climbed 5.4%, and diversified financial services stocks (+5.4%) like Bank of America (BAC 16.62, +0.98) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 41.78, +1.57) bounded.

Materials stocks also garnered support and finished 0.8% higher after spending the middle half of the session in the red. Besides financials, it was the only other sector in the S&P 500 to make a gain. The sector benefited from a rebound in commodity prices, which saw oil prices rebound from a loss of more than 2% to close 0.8% higher at nearly $72 per barrel. Oil prices were initially pressured by a larger-than-expected weekly inventory build of 1.67 million barrels.

Steel stocks (+2.6%) also provided support to the materials sector after AK Steel (AKS 21.92, +0.98) said it would raise prices.

The rest of the stock market struggled for most of the session. Losses were broad-based and considerable as most of the major sectors in the S&P 500 traded at least 1% into the red. Their weakness wasn't necessarily caused by the day's economic data, but the data certainly didn't stir up any support for stocks either.

Released before the opening bell, the latest ADP Employment Report indicated that 371,000 jobs were slashed in July, but that was greater than the 350,000 job losses that had been forecast. Meanwhile, job losses for June were revised lower to reflect 463,000 job cuts. The figures come ahead of the government's nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show 328,000 job losses when it is released Friday.

The ADP data was followed by some modest selling pressure in premarket trading, but stocks still started the session flat. Selling pressure intensified ahead of the latest ISM Service Index and factory orders data.

The ISM Services Index for July unexpectedly slipped to 46.4 from 47.0 in June. It was expected to come in at 48.0. The disappointing reading caused participants to generally dismiss the third straight monthly increase in factory orders, which most recently turned 0.4% higher in June.

The broader market did attempt another upward push into the close, but this time the advance was rebuffed. Still, the S&P 500 held above the 1000 mark as its decliners outnumbered its advancing issues by 2-to-1 in relatively high volume. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 2-to-1 in the Dow. Procter & Gamble (PG 53.91, -1.55) was a primary laggard among blue chips, even though the company bested the consensus earnings estimate for the latest quarter. Fellow Dow component Kraft (KFT 28.33, -0.01) also lagged, despite posting a positive earnings surprise.

Nasdaq -18.26 at 1993.05... S&P Midcap 400 -0.3... NYSE Adv/Dec 1388/1640... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 969/1701.

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Weekly & Daily Stock Earnings Calendar:

Chevron CVX 7/31 8am
Dryships DRYS 7/31 8am

Chesapeake Energy CHK 8/03 4pm

UBS UBS 8/04 8am

Electronic Arts ERTS 8/04 4pm

Devon Energy DVN 8/05 8am

Cisco Systems CSCO 8/05 4pm

Sirius XM Radio SIRI 8/06 8am

August 04, 2009 -- 16:30 ET Dow +33.63 at 9320.19, Nasdaq +2.70 at 2011.31, S&P +3.02 at 1005.65:
Moving the Market:
Financials show considerable strength. Personal income for June falls more than expected, but spending makes a slightly stronger increase than expected. Pending home sales for June climb more than expected

Sector Watch:
photo products; IT consulting and services; casinos and gaming; residential REITs; industrial REITs; building products; office REITs; construction materials; soft drinks

homebuilding; electric utilities; agricultural products; forest products; oil and gas drillers; auto
retailers; publishing and printing

Market Events
08/04/09 16:30 ET Dow +33.63 at 9320.19, Nasdaq +2.70 at 2011.31, S&P +3.02 at 1005.65:
[BRIEFING.COM] A surprisingly strong increase in pending home sales and considerable strength in the financial sector struggled to prop up stocks and keep choppy trading at bay, but a late move by buyers made for a strong finish.

Stocks started the session in negative territory as participants were left largely unimpressed by the latest batch of earnings announcements, which didn't contain any real market movers. News that June personal income fell a larger-than-expected 1.3% and June spending made a generally in-line 0.4% increase also failed to stir action.

However, a much better-than-expected monthly increase of 3.6% for June bounced stocks off of morning lows. The move proved unsustainable, but financials emerged to provide support to the broader market.

Financials stocks were down more than 1% in the early going, but rebounded to settle with an 2.1% gain, just shy of their session high. There wasn't any particular catalyst to account for the sharp reversal from red to green other than momentum buying. That momentum helped carry the major indices into positive territory midsession.

Despite leadership from the financial sector, the broader market was unable to break free from its fit of choppiness. Still, the apparent instability couldn't disrupt a strong advance into the close that gave stocks their fourth straight advance.

The stock market's latest winning streak has only added to an already impressive run that has stocks up nearly 15% in just over three weeks. Such a strong move has many calling for a pullback, but buyers remain in control.

Amid an increased willingness to move into stocks and take on risk, small-caps in the Russell 2000 and mid-caps in the S&P 400 outperformed the headline indices this session. Small- and mid-caps tacked on 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Treasuries fell out of favor after starting the session in higher ground. The benchmark 10-year Note shed some 12 ticks, which pushed its yield back toward 3.7%. The yield had been above 3.7% midway through the session.

Nasdaq +2.70 at 2011.31... S&P Midcap 400 +0.8... NYSE Adv/Dec 1851/1168... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1509/1153.

08/03/09 16:15 ET Dow +114.95 at 9286.56, Nasdaq +30.11 at 2008.61, S&P +15.15 at 1002.61:
[BRIEFING.COM] Better-than-expected economic data helped to bring about broad-based buying, which took the S&P 500 to fresh highs for the year and helped it close above the psychologically significant 1000 mark for the first time since November.

The ISM Manufacturing Index made its seventh straight increase by coming in at 48.9 for June. While the sub-50 reading still connotes contraction in the manufacturing sector, the reading was still better than what had been expected.

Construction spending data for June made a surprise 0.3% increase. It was expected to fall 0.5%. The data was released at the same time as the ISM, so the pair of pleasing reports helped to fend off an early challenge from sellers, who had actually halved the stock market's opening gains.

Emboldened buyers helped to prop up the broader market, but materials stocks provided the most leadership and saw the richest gains. The sector's 3.5% advance was helped along by a sharp rise in steel stocks (+6.5%) and diversified metals and mining stocks (+8.0%).

Sharply higher commodity prices provided a catalyst for the run by basic materials stocks. The CRB Commodity Index spiked 3.4% and is now up more than 9% during the course of the past three sessions. A weaker dollar helped the case for commodities.

Oil prices jumped 3.0% to $71.53 per barrel. That's the highest price for oil in one month. Energy stocks responded by jumping 2.3%.

Financial stocks also saw solid buying interest. They finished 2.7% higher and were early leaders in the broader market, thanks to encouraging midyear reports from Barclays (BCS 22.15, +1.61) and HSBC (HBC 54.50, +3.80). Both banks provided leadership to the European bourses.

Earnings announcements didn't have much of an impact on trading this session, mostly because many bellwethers have already reported. Nonetheless, Humana (HUM 33.76, +0.91) reported an upside earnings surprise, but that wasn't enough to lift other managed care providers (-0.6%).

In other corporate news, Ford (F 8.33, +0.33) reported its first uptick in monthly sales results since 2007 by registering a 2.3% increase in June.

Treasuries were under pressure for the entire session. The benchmark 10-year Note shed more than a full point to put its yield above 3.6%.

Nasdaq +30.11 at 2008.61... S&P Midcap 400 +2.1... NYSE Adv/Dec 2542/522... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1880/791.

July 31, 2009 -- 16:30 ET Dow +17.15 at 9171.61, Nasdaq -5.80 at 1978.50, S&P +0.73 at 987.48:
Moving the Market:
Q2 GDP falls less-than-expected at annualized rate of 1.0% (consensus -1.5%); but personal consumption falls at worse-than-expected annualized rate of 1.2% (consensus -0.5%)

Sector Watch:
Auto mfg; auto components; real estate devp; building products; metals & mining; div financial services; household durables; industrial conglomerates; airlines; healthcare tech

professional services; biotech; office electronics; media; life sciences; multi-utilities; gas utilities;
electric equip

Market Events
07/31/09 16:30 ET Dow +17.15 at 9171.61, Nasdaq -5.80 at 1978.50, S&P +0.73 at 987.48:
[BRIEFING.COM] Most of the excitement in Friday's trade occurred before the open as market participants awaited and reacted to a mixed Q2 GDP reading, as the major indices stuck to a slight trading range throughout the session and settled near the unchanged mark.

The advance Q2 GDP report showed the economy contracted at an annualized rate of -1.0%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of decline. That was much improved from a downwardly revised -6.4% (from -5.5%) in the first quarter and it was also better than the expected -1.5% decline.

Personal consumption expenditures, which are the main driver of the economy, fell at an annualized rate of -1.2%. This was worse than the expected decline of 0.5%.

The market's reaction to the report in premarket trading was negative, with S&P 500 futures losing around 10 points. But the market managed to open nearly unchanged, and traded in a range-bound fashion throughout the session.

In the end, five of the ten sectors advanced, led by materials (+0.9%) as commodity prices rose. The utilities sector underperformed with a loss of 1.1%.

In corporate news, Ford (F 8.00, +0.61 ) got a lift on early reports that on word that the "cash-for-clunkers" programs could get $2 billion in additional funding through Sept. 2010, which the House of Representatives passed later in the afternoon. The move comes after the original program's budget of $1 billion may have been used in less than a month.

Walt Disney (DIS 25.12, -1.10) fell 4.2%. The company reported nearly in-line EPS, but its revenue dropped by a larger-than-expected 6.9% year-over-year.

Chevron (CVX 69.47, +1.77) this morning reported Q2 EPS of $0.87, which missed the consensus of $0.95.

Net income dropped 71% year-over-year due to the sharp decline in oil and natural gas prices.

In commodity trading, oil and precious metals closed significantly higher, benefiting from a 1.2% decline in the Dollar Index. Gold futures rose 2.0% to $954.00 per ounce and oil futures climbed up 3.3% to $69.15 per barrel.

The dollar's decline comes despite strength in the long end of the Treasury curve, with the 10-year note advancing a point and the 30-year bond up nearly two points.

The S&P 500 surged 7.4% in July, marking the fifth consecutive monthly gain.

Nasdaq -5.80 at 1978.50... NYSE Adv/Dec 1879/1137... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1282/1356.

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