Sunday, May 31, 2009

Weekly Market Update 05/30/09 - Free Stock Market Analysis

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5/29/09 16:30 ET Dow +96.53 at 8500.33, Nasdaq +22.54 at 1774.33, S&P +12.31 at 919.14: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 spent nearly the entire session gyrating within a nine point range amid light trading volume, but managed to close at session highs following a late flurry of buying and a spike in trading volume.

In what was May's final trading session, more than 1.8 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE, the most in more than one month.

Financial stocks were integral to the late move. After being a source of weakness for most of the session, financial stocks rallied from a loss in excess of 1% to finish with a 1.7% gain in the final hour.

While financial stocks made a strong finish, materials stocks spent the entire session trading with enviable gains. The sector closed 3.0% higher, propped up by diversified metals and mining companies (+4.2%), steel stocks (+3.3%), and gold stocks (+3.2%). More... see 05/29/09 post.

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Friday, May 29, 2009

Free Stock Market Analysis - Update 05/29/09

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5/29/09 16:30 ET Dow +96.53 at 8500.33, Nasdaq +22.54 at 1774.33, S&P +12.31 at 919.14:
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 spent nearly the entire session gyrating within a nine point range amid light trading volume, but managed to close at session highs following a late flurry of buying and a spike in trading volume.

In what was May's final trading session, more than 1.8 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE, the most in more than one month.

Financial stocks were integral to the late move. After being a source of weakness for most of the session, financial stocks rallied from a loss in excess of 1% to finish with a 1.7% gain in the final hour.

While financial stocks made a strong finish, materials stocks spent the entire session trading with enviable gains. The sector closed 3.0% higher, propped up by diversified metals and mining companies (+4.2%), steel stocks (+3.3%), and gold stocks (+3.2%).

Gold stocks were helped along by a run up in gold prices. Gold contracts settled pit trading with the yellow metal priced at $979.00 per ounce, up 1.8% for the session and more than 20% from their 2009 lows. Gold prices are now less than 3% below their 2009 highs.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices rallied 1.7% to finish at a fresh six-month high of $66.21 per barrel.

A 1.5% drop in the Dollar Index helped underpin a broad ascent by commodities. As such, the CRB Commodity Index finished 1.3% higher. Commodities finished May with a gain of more than 14%, outperforming the S&P 500, which logged a monthly gain of 5.2%. Still, the S&P 500 has finished the last three months with gains.

General Motors (GM 0.75, -0.37) has had an awful month, however. The stock has lost more than half its value since the start of May as the company comes face to face with the government's restructuring deadline. With the threat of bankruptcy looming, shares of GM are at record lows.

In other corporate news, J. Crew (JCG 25.86, +5.40) posted upside first quarter earnings and guided second quarter earnings above the consensus forecast, winning it favor among investors. The stock logged one of its best single-session performances by surging more than 25%.

Dell (DELL 11.57, +0.09) was less fortunate, though. The company faltered after posting better-than-expected earnings.

In economic news, preliminary first quarter GDP showed 5.7% drop for the first quarter, which was a slight improvement from the 6.1% decline that had been reported in the advance GDP reading. Participants showed little reaction to the data since most of it was already known.

Treasuries logged a solid session as they continue to recover from Wednesday's beating. The 10-year Note climbed more than one full point to push its yield back below 3.5%.

Nasdaq +22.54 at 1774.33... S&P Midcap 400 +1.6... NYSE Adv/Dec 2232/779... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1898/818.

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Thursday, May 28, 2009

Free Stock Market Analysis - Update 05/28/09 - SPY S&P500 SPX

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5/28/09 16:30 ET Dow +103.78 at 8403.80, Nasdaq +20.71 at 1751.79, S&P +13.77 at 906.83:
[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks spent the first half of the session seeking direction, but they were able to move markedly higher after a 7-year Treasury Note auction went off without any surprises.

Concern that economic recovery efforts could by complicated by higher borrowing costs stemming from rising yields had market participants closely watching today's 7-year Treasury Note auction. The auction's bid-to-cover ratio came in just below 2.3, which was in-line with the past three auctions.

The lack of surprise helped take the benchmark 10-year Note 28 ticks higher after it had oscillated in the early going. The yield on the 10-year Note reached 2009 highs during the prior session; it currently stands at 3.64%, just shy of the 3.7% to 4.0% range that bond guru Bill Gross stated would mark an attractive entry point during a CNBC interview.

With Treasury yields moving off of their highs, stocks were able to put together a sustainable advance and nearly reverse the prior session's losses.

Gains were broad-based, but financial scored the best gains by advancing 3.6%.

Meanwhile, tech giant Microsoft (MSFT 20.45, +0.32) was a primary leader in the Nasdaq amid reports that the company is no longer in serious discussions with Yahoo! (YHOO 15.09, +0.15) to combine search efforts.

General Motors (GM 1.12, -0.03) made gains early on after the company announced that its bondholders accepted an amended debt-for-equity offering. However, it finished with a loss as investors continue to question whether the company will be able to avoid bankruptcy.

Shares of retailers (-1.3%) underperformed the broader market for the entire session. Home improvement retailers Home Depot (HD 22.70, -0.63) and Lowe's (LOW 19.02, -0.61) were primary laggards in the group after first quarter mortgage delinquencies clicked higher to 9.1%, threatening to add to housing inventory and depress building activity.

To that point, annualized new home sales for April came in near expectations, but the monthly change fell short of expectations.

In other economic news, April durable goods orders, both including and excluding transportation, topped expectations. However, March orders were revised markedly lower.

Continuing jobless claims continue climbing to record levels, most recently coming in close to 6.8 million. However, initial weekly claims came in at 623,000, suggesting that the pace of layoffs is slowing.

In commodities trading, oil prices settled 2.5% higher above $65 per barrel for the first time since November. The advance was helped along by bullish inventory data, which followed news that OPEC will hold production steady, as expected.

Gold prices closed at $960.80 per ounce, up 0.7%. Gold prices are now up more than 10% since hitting their 2009 lows in mid-April.

Nasdaq +20.71 at 1751.79... S&P Midcap 400 +0.8... NYSE Adv/Dec 2001/1042... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1475/1177.

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Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Free Stock Market Analysis - Update 05/27/09 - SPY SPX QQQQ

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5/27/09 16:30 ET Dow -173.47 at 8300.02, Nasdaq -19.35 at 1731.08, S&P -17.27 at 893.06:
[BRIEFING.COM] A mixed batch of corporate headlines led to listless and choppy trading in the early going, but concerns that higher Treasury yields could complicate an economic recovery effort drove a flurry of selling pressure.

Downside guidance from Monsanto (MON 79.88, -5.37) and news that a $27 billion bond exchange offer from General Motors (GM 1.15, -0.29) proved unsuccessful led to some early weakness in stocks. Better-than-expected earnings and forecasts from several retailers (-2.2%) helped temper the tone, making for mixed trading in the early going.

The broader market did make a temporary move into positive territory in a knee-jerk reaction to news that existing home sales for April made a stronger-than-expected month-over-month increase. Overall sales were in-line with expectations.

Stocks moved markedly lower following an auction of 5-year government Notes carrying a 2.3% yield. Though the auction itself was solid, bid-to-cover ratio hit 2.3, mortgage origination sellers moved to hedge their positions and pressured the long-end of the yield curve. That sent the benchmark 10-year Note more than one point lower, which pushed its yield above 3.7% to a fresh 2009 high.

The higher borrowing costs associated with higher yields undermine the government's efforts to keep rates down in order to help along an economic recovery. With that, stocks went on the retreat.

Their descent stalled as the S&P 500 hit the 900 level, but sellers redoubled their efforts and pushed stocks down another leg to finish near session lows. The downturn has taken the S&P 500 back into negative territory for the year (-1.1%).

With the exception of technology, every major sector in the S&P 500 finished with a loss of at least 1%. Strength in large-cap technology holdings limited losses in the tech sector to 0.7%.

Energy stocks showed periodic strength by climbing more than 1% as oil prices reached fresh six-month highs. However, the sector faltered and finished 1.3% lower amid the broader market's sell off.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices logged multimonth closing highs by settling $63.45 per barrel, up 1.6% for the session. Oil prices remain in focus Thursday as weekly inventory data hits news wires midmorning and the latest OPEC meeting gets underway.

Nasdaq -19.35 at 1731.08... S&P Midcap 400 -1.8... NYSE Adv/Dec 925/2120... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 935/1768.

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Free Stock Market Analysis - Update 05/26/09

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5/26/09 16:30 ET Dow +196.17 at 8473.49, Nasdaq +58.42 at 1750.43, S&P +23.33 at 910.33:
[BRIEFING.COM] Better-than-expected consumer confidence data gave participants some anecdotal evidence that economic conditions may be improving, which brought about broad-based gains for the major indices.

Given the lack of news in the early going, the broader market looked to the May Consumer Confidence Index for guidance. With the May reading coming in at a better-than-expected 54.9, up from the prior reading of 40.8, buying immediately followed and helped stocks overcome a lackluster start.

Retailers responded to the increase in the consumer confidence by advancing 4.0%, though higher consumer confidence has yet translate into higher consumer spending.

Along with strength in retailers, General Motors (GM 1.44, +0.01) helped the consumer discretionary sector climb 3.8%. GM recovered from a loss in excess of 10% after The Wall Street Journal reported that the United Auto Workers union said the government will provide massive additional financial assistance to GM.

Meanwhile large-cap tech stocks like Apple (AAPL 130.78, +8.28), which was upgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley, helped give the Nasdaq its best percentage advance since early April.

Not to be outdone, financials finished 4.1% higher. Though that was more than any other major sector in the S&P 500, gains were still impressive across the board -- every major sector finished with a gain in excess of 1%.

Strength in stocks forced further selling in fixed income securities. The 10-year Treasury Note dropped roughly 23 ticks, which has pushed its yield to a fresh 2009 high of 3.54%.

Nasdaq +58.42 at 1750.43... NYSE Adv/Dec 2531/518... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2106/614.

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Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Weekly Current Market Conditions 05/25/09 - Free Stock Market Analysis

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Friday, May 22, 2009

Weekly Current Market Conditions 05/22/09 - Free Stock Market Analysis

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5/22/09 16:15 ET Dow -14.81 at 8277.32, Nasdaq -3.24 at 1692.01, S&P -1.33 at 887.00:
[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices spent the majority of a quiet, low volume session trading in positive territory, but some late selling pressure led stocks to close with a modest loss. Still, stocks were able to log a weekly gain (+0.5%). Stocks have advanced in nine of the last 11 weeks.

Action was largely listless for the entire session. Financial stocks, which have proven integral to the market's advances in recent weeks, actually lagged the broader market and finished 1.2% lower, worse than any other major sector.

Banks were the primary drag on the financial sector. Diversified banks slid 2.6% and regional banks slipped 1.8%. Analysts at Deutsche Bank stated that they believe many bank stocks are expensive by valuation, given the dilutive impact of recent stock offerings.

Though banks have been looking to raise capital in the wake of the government's bank stress tests, an official from the FDIC indicated that additional assessments on banks are probable, According to Dow Jones. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the FDIC expects losses in its deposit insurance fund to total $70 billion during the next five years.

Despite a slow start, materials stocks were able to garner support and trade with strength for most of the session. The sector was able to hold on to a 0.2% gain in the face of late selling pressure, thanks partly to an uptick in commodities prices.

The CRB Commodity Index advanced 0.7% for the session and 3.3% for the week as the Dollar Index extended its slide to fresh lows for 2009.

Treasuries were also forced to grapple with continued selling pressure. The benchmark 10-year Note fell 22 ticks, pushing its yield to a 2009 high of 3.45%. Treasuries are being pulled lower by the Treasury's efforts to add supply, even though the Fed is buying Treasuries to help prop up longer end prices in order to keep lending rates from escalating.

There wasn't any economic data released today, and only a handful of corporate headlines. Both Sears Holdings (SHLD 58.40, +5.21) and Gap (GPS 16.39, +0.41) posted better-than-expected earnings, which helped retailers outperform the broader market for most of the session. They finished with a 0.1% gain.

Automakers tumbled 2.9% amid reports that bondholders refused to take an equity stake in General Motors (GM 1.43, -0.49). Separate reports indicate that the company has reached much needed concessions with the Auto Workers Union, and that the company is not going to be pushed into bankruptcy next week.

Overall, advancing issues and decliners were evenly balanced, while trading volume was exceptionally low, suggesting there wasn't much conviction behind the upward move by stocks.

Little more than 1 billion shares traded hands on the New York Stock Exchange as participants entered vacation mode ahead of Memorial Day (stock and bond markets will be closed Monday, May 25 for holiday observance). Trading volume during the past 20 sessions has averaged more than 1.5 billion shares.

Nasdaq -3.24 at 1692.01... S&P Midcap 400 -0.5... NYSE Adv/Dec 1524/1458... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1185/1458.

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Thursday, May 21, 2009

Free Stock Market Analysis - Update 05/21/09 - SPY SPX

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5/21/09 16:15 ET Dow -129.91 at 8292.13, Nasdaq -32.59 at 1695.25, S&P -15.14 at 888.33:
[BRIEFING.COM] Emboldened by economic concerns, sellers took control of stocks and handed the major indices a marked loss. Though declines were deep and broad, stocks still finished off of their session lows.

A sharp pullback by the U.S. dollar helped gold prices close 1.5% higher at $951.20 per ounce and oil prices pare their losses to settle pit trading with a 1.6% loss at $61.02 per barrel. The greenback's 0.8% slide took the dollar index to a four-month low and came as global investors showed concern about the U.S. economic outlook in the wake of Standard & Poor's decision to lower its outlook for the United Kingdom. Just yesterday the Fed lowered its outlook for U.S. economic growth.

Worse-than-expected jobless claims supported the premise that economic conditions remain tenuous. Initial claims for the week ending May 16 totaled 631,000, while continuing claims climbed to a new record of 6.66 million.

Treasuries took a pounding amid the economic concerns. The benchmark 10-year Note fell 43 ticks, which pushed its yield near 2009 highs. Disappointing buybacks by the Fed also provided a catalyst for the downward move by Treasuries; investors have expected that the Fed will be expanding the size of such repurchases.

Participants largely dismissed a 1.0% increase in leading economic indicators for April even though the data was better than expected and marked the first increase in ten months.



Financials (+0.2%) attempted to provide support to the broader market. They oscillated between positive and negative ground before finishing as the only sector to log a gain. Regional banks (-4.5%) were a heavy drag on the financial sector as Fifth Third (FITB 6.95, -0.76) became the latest bank to come to market looking for capital raise in the wake of the government's stress tests. Fifth Third filed a $750 million common stock offering. Meanwhile, Regions Financial (RF 4.15, -0.74) disappointed investors by pricing its previously announced offering markedly below recent averages.

Losses were broad-based for the entire session. In the end, roughly 85% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 closed in the red. The S&P 500 did find some technical support as it encountered last week's lows.

General Motors (GM 1.91, +0.46) was one of only a handful of Dow components to log a gain. GM was supported by news the company has reached a labor contract deal with the United Auto Workers Union (UAW) and the Treasury, along with more reports indicating that GM's finance arm, GMAC, will receive $7 billion from the Treasury. Including this session's spike, shares of GM are up 77% week-to-date.

Nasdaq -32.59 at 1695.25... S&P Midcap 400 -1.8... NYSE Adv/Dec 808/2214... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 779/1912.

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Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Free Stock Market Analysis - Update 05/20/09 - SPY SPX

Here is the latest trading and free market analysis video on the S&P500 (SPX), SPY, ETFs...



Summery: Short term strategy: SPX/SPY is trading lower and looks like the pattern may be changing here, we are starting to see SPX/SPY consolidate here between 93.00 and 90.00. We are now below the lower end of the channel on the 30 minute chart, but just above the 5 day ma and 200ma, this may be a good support area and good place to go long with a tight STOP here or buy a protective PUT for insurance to the down side, or limit your risk by buying a bull call spread instead.

Patterns: Short term: Bearish, Intermediate term: Neutral, Long term: Bullish.

5/20/09 16:15 ET Dow -52.81 at 8422.04, Nasdaq -6.70 at 1727.84, S&P -4.66 at 903.47: [BRIEFING.COM] Recovering from losses last week, a bullish bias has supported buying in recent sessions, which helped participants begin Wednesday with strong gains. The upbeat tone was supported by continuing gains among commodities and an early advance by financial stocks. However, stocks began drifting lower midway through the session and ultimately closed with a loss as participants turned against financials.

Early gains were helped along by investors that chased commodities and materials stocks, which have benefited from the assumption that stronger economic conditions in the back half of the year will rekindle commodity demand. A weaker dollar has also helped bolster commodity prices.

The minutes from the April FOMC meeting indicated that participants project a contraction for real GDP this year, and that committee members believe the near-term economic outlook has weakened relative to the projections made in January. However, but a recovery in sales and production is still expected to begin in the second half of this year.

With the dollar dropping more than 1% against a basket of major foreign currencies, gold prices advanced 1.2% to settle pit trading at seven-week high of $937.40 per ounce. Gold stocks like Newmont Mining (NEM 45.55, +1.98) provided leadership to the materials sector (0.5%), which had spent most of the session trading with gains exceeding 2%. Meanwhile, metals and mining stocks climbed 1.0%.

Oil prices built on the prior session's advance to register fresh six-month intraday highs and closing highs. The advance was helped along by bullish inventory data, which showed a 2.1 million barrel draw for the week ending May 15 while a draw of 400,000 barrels was expected. Crude contracts settled more than 3% higher just above $62 per barrel.

Financials proved to be a weak link during the session. The financial sector spiked to a near 3% gain in the early going, helping drive the broader market higher, but the move ultimately collapsed. Financial stocks closed the session with a 2.4% loss.

Though Bank of America (BAC 11.50, +0.25) showed strength after announcing that it raised $13.5 billion through a previously announced share offering following government stress tests, banks were among the sectors weakest performers. The KBW Banking Index slid 2.8%.

Consumer finance companies (-3.5%) also showed considerable weakness amid continued concern that new rules are in order for credit card companies. Following the Senate's approval yesterday, the House of Representatives approved a bill imposing changes for the credit card industry.

Retailers had a seesaw session, which saw the sector trade with a 3.0% gain before settling with a 1.6% loss. Despite the disappointing finish, Target (TGT 42.95, +1.01) still logged an impressive gain following better-than-expected earnings.

Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 34.63, -1.95) generated in-line earnings for its latest quarter and issued an in-line forecast for the current quarter. The company's upside outlook for fiscal 2009 wasn't enough to win it favor, though. The stock traded as a laggard among tech issues (-0.7%).

Nasdaq -6.70 at 1727.84... NYSE Adv/Dec 1591/1452... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1239/1453.

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Free Stock Market Analysis - Update 05/19/09 - SPY SPX QQQQ DIA GLD

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CNBC:













5/19/09 16:30 ET Dow -29.23 at 8474.85, Nasdaq +2.18 at 1734.54, S&P -1.58 at 908.13:
[BRIEFING.COM] A late selling effort caused stocks to close a choppy session in mixed fashion. The session's lack of direction followed disappointing housing data and a pullback by financial stocks.

News that housing starts and building permits recently fell below expectations jostled participants in the early going and undermined what was a positive bias ahead of the opening bell. Housing starts during April came in at an annualized rate of 458,000, while building permits for April hit a rate of 494,000. Both marked record lows.

However, the is a silver lining to the report. Fewer housing starts and building permits means there will be fewer homes on the market, which should help clear the glut of existing homes and improve pricing.

Contrasting its performance in the prior session, financials were the worst performing sector in the S&P 500. They finished 2.6% lower amid weakness in consumer finance stocks and banking stocks.

Consumer finance companies (-4.8%) saw their shares come under increased pressure following news that the Senate has passed legislation to place new restrictions on the credit card industry. Dow component American Express (AXP 24.79, -1.34) showed particular weakness, even though the company announced plans to save $800 million this year by slashing jobs, investments, and costs.

Diversified banks dropped 4.9% as participants shrugged off news that the Fed has expanded collateral eligible under its TALF to include high-quality commercial mortgage-backed securities in order to ease balance sheet pressures. The Fed's announcement was made in the wake of a report from The Wall Street Journal that suggested commercial real-estate loans could generate $100 billion in bank losses by next year.

Meanwhile, CNBC reported that TARP repayment announcements will not be made until after June 8, and that the Treasury will announce a process for auctioning TARP warrants in the next several days.

On a similar note, Financial Times reported that Britain has begun talks with sovereign wealth funds and other investors about selling stakes in its part-nationalized banks.

Health care stocks also traded as laggards. They finished with a 0.6% loss, though AmerisourceBergen (ABC 35.96, +0.38) showed strength after it announced better-than-expected earnings, raised its guidance, hiked its quarterly dividend by 20%, and issued a 2-for-1 stock split.

There weren't many earnings reports for participants to assess this session. However, Dow component Home Depot (HD 24.63, -1.39) did post better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. That wasn't enough to win the company favor among participants, though. The stock surrendered nearly all of its gains from the prior session, and traded as a laggard among retailers, which finished the session 0.3% higher.

Utilities made up the best performing sector by finishing 1.7% higher. The strong performance followed a flat finish in the prior session, and losses in the three preceding sessions.

Only a handful of companies are scheduled to announce earnings results ahead of tomorrow's opening bell. The minutes from the FOMC's April 29 meeting are due at 2:00 PM ET and should help provide investors with details regarding the Fed's quantitative easing efforts.

Nasdaq +2.18 at 1734.54... S&P Midcap 400 +0.2... NYSE Adv/Dec 1806/1219... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1348/1315.

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Monday, May 18, 2009

SPY S&P500 SPX QQQQ DIA GLD update 05/18/09 - Free Stock Market Analysis

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5/18/09 16:30 ET Dow +235.44 at 8504.08, Nasdaq +52.22 at 1732.36, S&P +26.83 at 909.71:
[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks closed at session highs as diversified bank stocks and financial services stocks steadily led the broader market to its best single-session percentage advance in nearly two weeks.

Bank of America (BAC 11.73, +1.06) was a primary leader among financials after reports indicated that analysts at Goldman Sachs added shares of BAC to their Conviction Buy List. Even in the face of persistent capital concerns, regional banks jumped 7.1%, diversified banks finished 8.5% higher, and diversified financial services companies advanced 7.6%. The KBW Banking index climbed 7.5%.

Strength in bank stocks led the financial sector to a 7.2% gain, and helped carry the S&P 500 back above 900 as the broader market's advancing issues outnumbered its decliners by 10-to-1.

The positive bias also helped pare losses in the utilities sector, which looked as if it would close lower for its fourth straight session. Instead, utilities finished flat.

Buyers favored cyclical stocks for most of the session, bidding materials stocks (+3.6%), industrial stocks (+3.2%), and shares of retailers (+4.5%) higher. Retailers received added support amid better-than-expected top and bottom line quarterly results and an upbeat earnings outlook from home improvement outfit Lowe's (LOW 20.13, +1.68) helped home improvement retailers tack on 7.0%.

Home improvement retailers will likely have their gains tested Tuesday as April housing starts and building permits data hits news wires (8:30 AM ET). No other economic data is scheduled for release ahead of tomorrow morning's opening bell.

According to Reuters, Macy's (M 12.14, +0.81) was added to the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs, winning additional favor for retailers. Reuters also reported that Goldman cut its rating on Nordstrom (JWN 22.96, +0.38), but shares of JWN were able to overcome sellers' initial efforts and close higher with its peers.

Energy stocks (+3.1%) climbed as crude oil futures rallied 4.8% to settle pit trading just above $59 per barrel at a six-month closing high.

Precious metals fell out of favor, though, as equities bounded in broad-based fashion. Gold prices settled 1.0% lower at $921.70 per ounce, while silver slipped 1.3% to settle the session at $13.93 per ounce.

Also a defensive benchmark, 10-year Treasury Note dropped 23 ticks, lifting its yield to roughly 3.22%.

Trading volume during the session was rather low, however. Roughly 1.4 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE.

Nasdaq +52.22 at 1732.36... S&P Midcap 400 +3.8... NYSE Adv/Dec 2722/361... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2158/543.

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Saturday, May 16, 2009

Weekly Current Market Conditions 05/16/09 - Free Stock Market Analysis

Here is the latest trading and free market analysis video on the S&P500 (SPX), SPY ETF and more...



Sorry, I had a problem uploading this video for 2 days now, and I finally got it. Thanks for your patients, and enjoy!







Summery: Short term strategy: SPX/SPY are trading lower and looks like the pattern has changed here we are starting to see SPX/SPY put in lower highs and lower lows on the 30 minute chart. We are now below the lower end of the channel on the 30 minute chart, and as long as this Bearish pattern continues we can continue to sell the rips and buy the dips.

Patterns: Short term: Bearish, Intermediate term: Bearish, Long term: Bearish.

5/15/09 16:35 ET Dow -62.68 at 8268.64, Nasdaq -9.07 at 1680.14, S&P -10.19 at 882.88: [BRIEFING.COM] Choppy trading in the early going gave way to broad-based selling, which resulted in the stock market's fourth decline this week. As a result, stocks logged a weekly loss of 5.0%, which is its worst in two months.

Stocks struggled to find clear direction in the first couple of hours of trading. Participants were generally uninspired by news that the Euro zone economy contracted for its fourth consecutive quarter, and that the pace of that contraction has accelerated. Despite the dour batch of data, European indices closed in mixed ashion.

Read more >>

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Friday, May 15, 2009

Weekly Current Market Conditions 05/15/09 - Free Stock Market Analysis

Here is the latest trading and free market analysis video on the S&P500 (SPX) and SPY ETF

I will post a video soon, please check back later.

5/15/09 16:35 ET Dow -62.68 at 8268.64, Nasdaq -9.07 at 1680.14, S&P -10.19 at 882.88:
[BRIEFING.COM] Choppy trading in the early going gave way to broad-based selling, which resulted in the stock market's fourth decline this week. As a result, stocks logged a weekly loss of 5.0%, which is its worst in two months.

Stocks struggled to find clear direction in the first couple of hours of trading. Participants were generally uninspired by news that the Euro zone economy contracted for its fourth consecutive quarter, and that the pace of that contraction has accelerated. Despite the dour batch of data, European indices closed in mixed fashion.

U.S. economic also did little to motivate. The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) met expectations by coming in flat, while Core CPI saw a stronger increase than had been expected by coming in with a 0.3% monthly increase. Industrial production for April fell 0.5%, which wasn't quite as bad as what had been expected, and capacity utilization came in at 69.1%, moderately better than what was expected.

Though the economic readings were generally in-line to slightly better than expected, participants are beginning to look for signs that economic conditions are actually tilting toward growth.

News that life insurers will have access to $22 billion in TARP funds initially won support for the group. However, concern that government funds may not win higher ratings for the companies along with the recognition that many companies continue struggling with macro headwinds undercut the group's strength. Life and health insurers finished 3.5% lower.

In a similar vein, rating agency Fitch placed several regional banks on Credit Watch Negative amid concern related to further credit deterioration. Regional banks finished the session 3.0% lower.

Weakness in insurers and banking issues dragged the financial sector to a 2.5% loss, which was worse than any other sector. With abounding weakness in the financial sector, the broader market was left without one of its primary leaders.

Sellers also hit energy stocks with stiff pressure. The sector shed 2.2%. Its weakness was exacerbated by a 3.6% drop in crude oil prices, which settled at $56.52 per barrel.

Utilities underperformed for the entire session, extending the prior session's weakness. Electric utilities fell 2.7% amid news that FirstEnergy (FE 36.47, -3.87) held a disappointing rate auction.

Retailers showed periodic strength in the wake of better-than-expected earnings from Nordstrom (JWN 22.58, +1.63) and JC Penney (JCP 26.51, -0.11), but the group still finished 0.7% lower.

Tech, which is the largest sector in the S&P 500 by market weight, showed relative strength and actually spent the majority of the session as the only sector in the green. While several large-cap tech stocks held their gains, the broader tech sector was unable to fight off the negative bias and finished 0.1% lower.

The broader market did find some support late in the session, but only after it broke below its 20-day moving average to hit 880. Stocks recovered a bit from there, but still finished with broad-based losses as declining issues outnumbered advancers by 3-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Options for May expired this session, but that didn't seem to lift trading volume above recent averages. Less than 1.5 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE big board this session.

Nasdaq -9.07 at 1680.14... S&P Midcap 400 -1.1... NYSE Adv/Dec 1088/1922... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1052/1626.

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Thursday, May 14, 2009

S&P500 SPX SPY update 05/14/09 - Free Stock Market Analysis

Here is the latest trading and free market analysis video on the SP500 (SPX) and SPY, QQQQ, DIA, and GLD, ETFs.


Summery: Same Story - Short term strategy: SPX/SPY are trading slyly higher and looks like the pattern may be changing here we are starting to see SPY put in lower highs and lower lows on the 30 minute chart for now. But we are now at the lower end of the channel on the 30 minute chart, and as long as this bullish pattern continues we can continue to buy the dips and sell the rips. We are at the bottom of the trading channel here so we may see a bounce to the upside here. However if we fail to rally up into this channel we may see more downside trading in this market.

Patterns: Short term: Bullish, Long term: Bullish.

5/14/09 16:30 ET Dow +46.43 at 8331.32, Nasdaq +25.02 at 1689.21, S&P +9.15 at 893.07:
[BRIEFING.COM] Led by financials, stocks spent the majority of the session trading with impressive gains, but some late selling pressure challenged the broader market's advance and made for a choppy close.

Stocks struggled to find direction in the first few minutes of trading as participants assessed the implications of rising jobless claims. According to the latest data, continuing claims climbed more than expected to a record high of 6.56 million. Weekly initial claims also topped expectations by totaling 637,000.

With jobless claims mounting, many expect consumer spending to remain challenged. Such a notion was supported in the prior session when advance retail sales data for April showed an unexpected decline.

Shares of retailers fought to hold on to gains this session. They finished 0.3% higher after being up more than 2%. Wal-Mart (WMT 49.10, -0.93) slipped after posting in-line earnings, which were also on par with what the company had already forecast.

Financials provided leadership to the broader market, but only after recovering from a flurry of selling pressure in the early going. Financials were down 0.6% at their session low, but managed to close with a 4.0% gain.

Multiline (+9.3%) insurers led gains in the financial sector as they recovered from rating concerns in the prior session. Meanwhile, Moody's has put Bank of America's (BAC 11.31, +0.30) financial strength on review for possible upgrade.

Energy stocks also climbed back from an early loss. The sector had been down more than 1%, but closed with a 0.3% gain amid a rebound in crude oil prices. Crude oil prices were down in early pit trading after the IEA trimmed its demand forecast, but crude prices settled 1.0% higher at $58.62 per barrel.

Of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, only the utilities sector closed lower; it shed 0.4% amid weakness in electric utilities stocks (-0.8%).

Without any major companies reporting earnings results tomorrow, participants will be taking their cues from economic data. Due tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m. ET, April total CPI is expected to be flat, while Core CPI is expected to increase 0.1%. That ties in with the April PPI, which was released this morning. Total April PPI increased 0.3% month-over-month, while Core PPI increased 0.1% month-over-month.

Separately, capacity utilization and industrial production for April are due tomorrow at 9:15 AM ET.

Nasdaq +25.02 at 1689.21... S&P Midcap 400 +1.6... NYSE Adv/Dec 2172/847... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1825/838.

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Wednesday, May 13, 2009

S&P500 SPX SPY update 05/13/09 - Free Stock Market Analysis

Here is the latest trading and free market analysis video on the SP500 (SPX) and SPY ETF


Summery: Short term strategy: SPX/SPY are trading lower for now it looks like the pattern may be changing here we are starting to see SPY put in lower highs and lower lows on the 30 minute chart for now. But we are now at the lower end of the channel on the 30 minute chart, and as long as this bullish pattern continues we can continue to buy the dips (here’s a good place to go long with a stop at about 88.25) and sell the rips. We are at the bottom of the trading channel here so we may see a bounce to the upside here. However if we fail to rally up into this channel we may see more downside trading in this market.

Patterns: Short term: Bullish, Long term: Bullish.

5/13/09 16:25 ET Dow -184.22 at 8284.89, Nasdaq -51.73 at 1664.19, S&P -24.43 at 883.92:
[BRIEFING.COM] A broad-based selling effort weighed on stocks for the entire session and sent buyers recoiling as more than 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 finished lower, which resulted in the S&P 500's third consecutive loss.

A negative bias loomed in premarket trading as sellers prepared to continue their efforts amid weakness among major foreign indices. Their cause was strengthened by an unexpected decline in advance retail sales data for April, which was released ahead of the opening bell and supported the notion that consumers aren't completely ready to lead an economic turnaround.

According to the data, April total retail sales decreased 0.4%, and sales less autos decreased 0.5%. The April figures failed to meet the consensus forecast, which called for total sales to be flat and sales excluding autos to increase 0.2%. However, the decline wasn't as sharp as what was seen in March, when total sales slid 1.3%, and sales less autos declined 1.2%.

Shares of retailers slid 3.3%. Retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT 50.03, -0.59) also finished with a loss, but outperformed the broader market on a relative basis. The company is scheduled to announce its latest quarterly results tomorrow morning, ahead of the opening bell.

Financials dropped 5.2%, more than any other major sector, and extended their week-to-date decline to more than 13%. While financials logged the worst loss of any sector this session, sellers weren't entirely focused on financial stocks. Cyclical plays also saw outsized losses as materials stocks (-4.5%) and industrials stocks (-4.0%) sank. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks were also strongly out of favor as the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index sank -4.7% and the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index made a 4.4% drop.

Large-cap tech had showed relative weakness in the early going, but managed to firm up a bit. Intel (INTC 15.13, -0.08) was a relative leader among its peers after stating that the second quarter is going better than the company had expected. That overshadowed news that Intel has been hit by the European Commission with a $1.45 billion fine for breaking antitrust laws. The fine represents nearly 14% of Intel's cash and short-term investments.

IBM (IBM 102.26, -1.68) attempted to drum up support by stating that earnings for fiscal 2009 will be least $9.20 per share, which is above the current consensus estimate of $9.11 per share.

Energy stocks finished 3.0% lower after amid the broader market's downward bias and a downturn in crude oil prices. Crude oil contracts finished 1.4% lower at $58.02 per barrel after surrendering solid gains that were bolstered by bullish inventory data midmorning. Enthusiasm was partly capped by a lowered demand forecast from OPEC.

All 10 major sectors finished the session lower amid relatively high trading volume (approx. 1.8 bln shares on NYSE). Even health care, which had spent most of the session as the only sector in positive territory, buckled in late trading. Health care closed 0.1% lower, though pharmaceuticals were able to finish 0.7% higher.

The latest business inventory data had no real impact on this session's trading. Nonetheless, March data showed a 1.0% decrease in inventories, which was largely in-line with expectations. Tomorrow's economic data carries a bit more weight and will be in closer focus; both the April Producer Price Index and weekly initial jobless claims data are due at 8:30 AM ET Thursday morning.

Nasdaq -51.73 at 1664.19... S&P Midcap 400 -4.4... NYSE Adv/Dec 337/2745... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 395/2294.

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Tuesday, May 12, 2009

SP500 SPX SPY update 05/12/09 - Free Stock Market Analysis

Here is the latest trading and free market analysis video on the SP500 (SPX) and SPY ETF

5/12/09 16:35 ET Dow +50.34 at 8469.11, Nasdaq -15.32 at 1715.92, S&P -0.89 at 908.35:
[BRIEFING.COM] Profit takers sold early gains and sent the major indices markedly lower for most of the session, but stocks were able to battle back in the second half and finish in mixed fashion despite a lack of positive catalysts.

Out of favor for the second straight session, financials fell 1.8%. Financials were actually up more than 1% in the early going, but sellers pounced on the sector, focusing their efforts on regional banks (-5.6%) and diversified banks (-3.2%).

Bank of America (BAC 12.26, -0.68) was a primary laggard in the financial sector. Investors were unimpressed by news that the company is selling a partial stake in China Construction Bank for $7.3 billion to a consortium of buyers.

Bank of New York (BK 28.43, -1.12) also traded with weakness. It was the latest financial outfit to announce a secondary common stock offering.

Ford (F 5.01, -1.07) also fell out of favor after it announced a common stock offering that will raise funds for general purposes and help provide for certain union obligations, but the offering is also expected to dilute existing shareholders.

General Motors (GM 1.15, -0.29) was dogged as investors become increasingly concerned about whether the company will have a restructuring plan ready for government review by June. Yesterday GM's management indicated that it is more probable that GM will need to accomplish its goals through bankruptcy. Shares of the Dow component are at their lowest level in decades.

Fellow Dow component Microsoft (MSFT 19.89, +0.57) will issue $3.75 billion of senior unsecured notes to help fund working capital requirements, capital expenditures, or share repurchases. Microsoft was a primary leader among tech stocks (-0.6%), which actually underperformed the broader market.

Participants also rotated out of early cycle stocks in favor of defensive-oriented holdings. As such, industrials fell 1.2% and consumer discretionary stocks slid 2.2% as shares of retailers surrendered 0.9%. Retailers will come into sharper focus tomorrow, when the Advance April Retail Sales data is unveiled (8:30 AM ET).

Meanwhile, consumer staples stocks climbed 1.3%, health care advanced 1.4%, telecom tacked on 1.1%, and utilities closed 0.6% higher. Gold gained 1.1% to settle pit trading at $923.90 per ounce.

There weren't any major earnings announcements this session. In terms of economic data, the U.S. trade deficit widened to $27.6 billion in March, which is the first time in eight months that the deficit widened. However, the increase comes off of February's $26.1 billion deficit, which was the narrowest deficit since 1999.

Additionally, the March reading is an improvement from the first quarter average through February, so it should factor favorably into the revised first quarter GDP reading. The latter point aside, the March trade balance report serves as another reminder that global trade continues to contract as countries around the globe grapple with the effects of the financial crisis.

Summery:
Short term strategy: SPX/SPY are trading lower for now it looks like the pattern may be changing here we are starting to see SPY put in lower highs and lower lows on the 30 minute chart for now. But we are in the 30 minute chart channel and as long as this bullish pattern continues we can continue to buy the dips and sell the rips. We are at the middle of the trading channel here so may see more downside here.

Patterns: Short term: Bearish, Long term: Bullish.

Also – Sorry! I had to edit my video, it was to long for YouTube.

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Monday, May 11, 2009

SP500 SPX SPY update 05/11/09pm - Free Stock Market Analysis

Here is the latest trading and free market analysis video on the SP500 (SPX) and SPY ETF

Dow -155.88 at 8418.77, Nasdaq -7.76 at 1731.24, S&P -19.99 at 909.24:
[BRIEFING.COM] Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 4-to-1 in the S&P 500 as profit-takers pressured stocks for the entire session. Financials felt the brunt of the selling effort, but strength in large-cap tech helped the Nasdaq outperform its counterparts.

There weren't any major earnings announcements or economic reports to act as positive catalysts for the stock market Monday. The dearth of data seemed to encourage a round of profit taking by participants who had watched stocks climb nearly 6% last week.

As has been the recent trend, financials were the best performers last week, which made them an easy target for sellers looking to lock in gains. In turn, the financial sector shed 6.8%, cutting into last week's 23% gain.

Diversified banks slipped 6.7% and regional banks dropped 8.5% after several companies announced plans to raise capital.

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SP500 SPX SPY update 05/11/09am - Free Stock Market Analysis

We are continuing to trade to the up side here for now on all the markets. For the S&P500 we are fast approaching the 200ma on the daily chart witch may give us a good upside target for the price action to trade to before pausing or changing direction to the downside. However be cautious the markets are looking toppy here on the weekly and daily time frames. This is a day traders market still. I believe the 401K holders/owners need to wait for a pullback in this market before starting to move there money into any non-fixed income funds. Technically we are still in a short term Bull Rally within a BEAR market.

Short term strategy: SPX/SPY are still trading higher it looks like it is still putting in higher highs and higher lows on the 30 minute chart for now. As long as this bullish pattern continues we can continue to buy the dips and sell the rips. We are at the top of the trading channel here so look for a pull back soon.

However be careful the markets are looking toppy here on the weekly and daily time frames.

Long term strategy: For long term traders you need to wait for pull back on the daily or 30 minute chart before buying the SPX/SPY and also buy a protective PUT for insurance to the down side, or limit your risk by buying a bull call spread instead.

Remember to always protect your trade with a “stop loss” or a hedge on your trade.

Patterns: Short term: Bullish for now, Long term: Bullish for now.

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Sunday, May 10, 2009

Weekly Current Market Conditions 05/10/09 - Free Stock Market Analysis

Here is the latest trading and free market analysis video on the SP500 (SPX) and SPY ETF










Summery: This is a day traders market still. SPX/SPY are still trading higher it looks like it is still putting in higher highs and higher lows on the 30 minute chart for now. As long as this bullish pattern continues we can continue to buy the dips and sell the rips. We are at the top of the trading channel here so look for a pull back soon.

However be careful the markets are looking toppy here.

For long term traders you need to wait for pull back on the 30 minute chart before buying the SPY and also buy a protective PUT for insurance to the down side, or limit your risk by buying a bull call spread instead.


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The Week Ahead